Tricky one, this one today, because Bournemouth are no mugs. As Arteta said, Antonio Iraloa has created a well-drilled, well-coached, progressive passing (they're seventh in the league on progressive passing numbers just behind us, Liverpool, Brighton, City and The Scum) team who have not had some of the results they - and a few - would have wanted. Last time out they lost 1-0 at Leicester but had 19 attempts at goal. Away from home that is pretty meaty, but if you want to look at that game as a microcosm of some of the challenges they've faced this season, you look at home many were on target:
On expected goals this season they're sixth, so they are creating good chances and decent chances, but in the Premier League on actual goals scored they sit in 14th. They've scored eight goals this season in seven matches, but six of those were against teams expected to be in relegation dogfights: Everton and Southampton.
So today I'm thinking we're going to have to expect them to create chances, but we need to be able to get back to defensive shutouts and clean sheets after conceding five goals in our last three matches (something Arteta was also asked about in his press conference yesterday). From a defensive look, Bournemouth sit mid table with 10 goals conceded in seven games and they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, so you'd hope that we'd have enough to avoid being completely shut out, but as usual Arteta wasn't minded to give too much away.
The good news seems to be that Saka is fit. Martinelli's situation is a little up in the air so I suspect this might mean an alternative option found, so that question could be solved with Trossard easily enough, but Sterling and Jesus could still be putting their hands up to get a start too.
I have a weird sneaky suspicion he might put Sterling in there toda, you know. Here's my thinking on that:
- I think he likes that Trossard and Havertz are interchangeable at the moment and so they both play in the eight and up top at different stages of each game
- I don't think we've seen enough from Gabriel Jesus to suggest he'll get a start and against Southampton I think him and Sterling together didn't work, so I suspect it will be a case of one or the other if they are going to start
- Gabby Jesus loves the Champions League so I suspect he would be saved more for that in midweek than today
There's also the fact that Odegaard still isn't fit, which I suspect means that Partey is the deepest lying midfielder and Rice will cover left eight. He could of course surprise us with Merino, but I think given the opponent, we'll see Partey in there with Rice and his engine to cover when Bournemouth attack us with their high press and committed bodies. Merino is a duel winner but from what I've already seen and we know from his time at Sociedad, he does that higher up the pitch. I haven't seen enough to tell how big his engine is when Bournemouth hit us in transition and start to flood forward. Because that's exactly what we're going to see today; they are high energy, high press, bodies forward and try to stress their opponent with numbers in the final third.
That's why I'm thinking Partey from deep, because if they are doing that, he has the vision to execute line-breaking passes and if there are gaps to be found, he should be able to do it. In a way it's a real shame that Odegaard and Martinelli aren't available today, because I can picture in my mind's eye Odegaard picking the ball up from deep and sweeping a ball to Martinelli after we've won it off Bournemouth to set him off in to space. Without them, somebody like Partey and his passing range over middle distances should be important today. Sterling is a tricky dribbler and whilst he won't have the same burst as five years ago, he's still got a bit of pace about him and he might find himself with more space today if he plays wide left.
On the other side we all know what Starboy can do, but who will be behind him to support? It won't be Tomiyasu, who Arteta also confirmed will still be out for a while yet, but it will be one of White or Timber, I'm sure. My gut tells me it's going to be Timber, because he's played - and played so well of late - and that White is going to be eased in after his absence, but I also feel like Timber might be a better one-on-one dual merchant. Iraola himself has said this week that the games they win are when it is more open, they get to exploit space and have more one-on-one actions, so that is what they are looking to do. We have to be ready for that to be the game they want and so we need players who are good at defensive duels. In an ideal world you'd say a back four of Tomiyasu left, Gabriel, Saliba and then Timber, but I did see Calafiori win a few against Southampton so maybe he's got more in his locker in that sense that we thought, but I'm more thinking about pace coming up against you and we have already seen that Riccardo is not the quickest in the world. He's no slouch, but he's not as rapid as some of the wide players in this league and we saw how he got done by Savio, then also how Hakimi roasted him two on a couple of occasions, says to me that he'll need to be on form today and hopefully he has some support for teammates that can double up.
Alternatively we'll just do what we have been doing and let him roam, then see who Bournemouth fancy putting on their right to go up against Big Gabby!
Whatever the approach, however, one thing is clear, which is that this has to be a 'must win' today. City will beat Wolves and Liverpool should probably overcome Chelsea at home, so anything other than three points puts us further away from them and makes life all the harder. The reason the Premier League is the best in the world is of course it's unpredictability, but Arsenal and Arteta need to minimise the chances of that by playing our game, not Bournemouth's high-intensity, open one, today.
back tomorrow with some thoughts on how it all played out. Catch you then.