Iran Struggling to Convince Its People About Support for Hamas
Source: Newsweek

Iran's rhetoric about backing Palestinians in Gaza as the Israel-Hamas war unfolds is not convincing many in the Islamic Republic, an Iranian expert has told Newsweek.

Since the war started, Iran has made loud pronouncements of support for Palestinians, condemning the West and calling on Arab countries to sanction Israel, as well as warning the U.S. about the conflict spilling over into the region.

But social-media users noted a call by the authorities to observe a minute's silence at a soccer match on Friday between Esteghlal and Havadar teams was ignored by Esteghlal fans who blew their horns at Tehran's Azadi Stadium in protest.

"So many Iranians are rejecting the regime's #Gaza and #Palestine policy," Meir Javedanfar, non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Tehran may offer financial and moral support for Hamas, but it has rejected claims that it was directly involved in the assault by the group's militants in southern Israel. It led to 1,400 deaths and was followed by Israel's bombardment of Gaza, where officials say at least 4,385 Palestinians have died, according to Reuters.

However, Omid Memarian, communications director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), told Newsweek that Tehran's regime messaging about the war is not being listened to by many within the country.

"The Iranian government has a tough time convincing the people that its support for the people in Palestine is authentic and not purely for politics and its ideological advances," Memarian said.

"The general perception among many Iranians and analysts is that it will be costly for the Iranian government to get involved in the current conflict between Israel and Hamas and let it spill to the rest of the region.

"Many are fearful that the government doesn't have the support of the people in pushing for advancing its foreign-policy adventures, which might be a reason that the current hardliner rulers in Tehran move towards a suicidal move and expand the frontlines of the conflict," Memarian added.

Actions by the anti-Israel, anti-Western alliance of Iranian proxy groups in the "axis of Resistance" are believed to be more likely than a direct confrontation between Iran and the U.S., American officials cited by NBC News have said.

On Thursday, the U.S. Navy vessel USS Carney downed cruise missiles and drones in the northern Red Sea launched from Yemen by pro-Iranian Houthi forces, which may have been headed to Israel. A senior Israeli official said the incident "would not have been executed without Iran's green light," NBC reported.

Meanwhile, on Friday, a U.S. defense official said the firing of rockets at American targets in Baghdad was consistent with actions by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.

Experts have dismissed the likelihood that Iran would enter directly into the war between Israel and Hamas. However, there are concerns that the clashes between Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces with Israel's military along its northern border with Lebanon could escalate.

"It seems the Islamic Republic understands the calibre of the crisis and that any miscalculation might have severe consequences for the regime, that is widely hated at home," said Memarian.

The independent U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) had reported the red lines for Axis of Resistance groups regarding the Israel-Hamas war. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias said that they would strike U.S. targets if there were any intervention by Washington in the conflict.

The threshold for Lebanese Hezbollah would be an Israeli ground operation into Gaza, while Tehran would directly intervene only if Israel attacks the Islamic State.

Newsweek has contacted the Iranian Foreign Ministry for comment via email.

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.